background The ability to predict the level of care (care burden) on the basis of patient characteristics is important for both the indication for treatment and the funding of mental healthcare. Within the framework of an administrative agreement in mental healthcare, a care demand intensity model 1.0 was developed. However, since the predictive power of this model is rather limited it remains controversial. aim To ascertain whether prediction of the level of care using the care demand intensity model can be improved by using more and more precise patient characteristics. method Comparison between the care burden estimate based on patient characteristics at intake into an addiction care institute and the care burden estimate determined by the indicators in the care demand intensity model. results Taking into account both the increasing number and more precise patient characteristics at intake in addiction care explained a considerably larger proportion of the variance in care consumption than the care demand intensity model 1.0.
conclusion The estimate of the consumption of care can be greatly improved but remains an insufficient tool upon which to base funding.